Hadley"s Hope Simulator [Beta]

[deezelboy]

"Posted at AvP Outbreak on 30.09.2005 at 10:49:19

I"ve been talking to a few people recently about ALiens as bioweapons, which made me wonder how effective a bioweapon it would be, which once again led me to think that wouldn"t it be great if we could simulate what a Hadley"s Hope takeover would be like.
 
 This is a Beta version.  It"s a bit flakey, but hopefully should provide some amusement for you all.
 
<a href="http://i64.photobucket.com/albums/h167/deezelboy/Flash/hadleySim.swf" target="_blank">http://i64.photobucket.com/albums/h167/deezelboy/Flash/hadleySim.swf</a>
 
 Population - staring population for each type.
 
 Lifespan - given in days, except the colonists which is in years (but won"t make any difference as it hasn"t been patched in    ).
 
 AvG Prey - the number of hosts the Alien can capture in any one day.
 
 Gestate - the number of days it takes for a host to be impregnated and give birth to an Alien.
 
 Transmute - the number of days it takes for a colonist to be transformed into an egg, ala Brett.  If this is set to 0, the Aliens cannot turn people into eggs, ala the sequels.
 
 Queen On/Off: 1 means that the simulator supports Queens.  The Aliens will produce a Queen as soon as possible, but only one Queen is allowed.  0 means that it"s old school Alien, no Queens allowed.
 
 Queen Development:the number of days it takes fro a Queen to develop to egg laying capacity.  This includes any extra gestation time, ala Ripley"s experience in Alien 3.
 
 Queen Egg Rate: the number of eggs a developed Queen will produce in a day.
 
 Queen Lifespan: not implemented.
 
 Graph:<font color=00FF00>Colonists</font>, <font color=FF0000>Aliens</font>, <font color="Yellow">hosts</font>, <font color="Orange">eggs</font>, <font color=FFFFFF>queen</font>.
 
 This is a rush job, and I"m not happy with either the design or the math behind it.  Please not that people transmutating into eggs aren"t shown at the moment - there"s a lowering of Hadleys population, and then eggs appear after the desired time.  I fully realise how confusing this is - but it"s a rush job!
 
 I"m not around for the next week, but any bug reports, suggestions or reports of interesting simulations are absolutely encouraged in my absence. "

[maledoro]

"Posted at AvP Outbreak on 30.09.2005 at 11:42:25

Very nice!
 
"

[TheDeed]

Posted at AvP Outbreak on 30.09.2005 at 12:05:19

I set the Alien lifespan to 1... just look what happens!
 
Proof positive that O"Bannon"s nuts.    

[maledoro]

"Posted at AvP Outbreak on 30.09.2005 at 12:12:44

And how did you change the other factors?
 
"

[deezelboy]

"Posted at AvP Outbreak on 30.09.2005 at 12:43:31

on 30.09.2005 at 12:05:19, TheDeed  wrote:

I set the Alien lifespan to 1... just look what happens!   Proof positive that O"Bannon"s nuts.

 
Yeah, that freakin" thing was driving me nuts last night giving it dry runs out of the movies to test it.  There"s a bug arising from the use of floats for some things and integers for another, but as to whether this affects anything major is anybody"s guess.  
 
I"m just not 100% happy with it, but don"y have time at the mo to check why.
 
But try this for old school Alien:
 
Hadley"s Pop: 7 (crew of Nostromo)
Egg Cache Pop: 0
Aliens Pop: 0
Aliens LifeSpan: 2 (which means that on the second day of it"s life it"ll be twice as slow - kinda like it was on the Narcissus)
Alien AvG Prey: 2 (it got Dallas and Brett within a day)
Queen On/Off: 0 - no queen
Hosts Gestate: 1
Hosts Transmute: 1.5
 
And it looks like you were right, The Deed.  Queens and eggs do slow down the takeover!
--EDIT
Initial simulation that"s loaded in is the Hadley"s + Queen model, where one Alien and one egg start off in the colony.  The Alien takes a host, uses the egg to make a Queen, and Hadley"s takeover happens within about 21 days.
 
Use the initial, taken the Alien"s lifespan down to 2 days, which I think fairly reflects Alien.  
 
Hadley"s goes *poof* at day 27 with 88 Aliens on the prowl.  Almost a perfect Aliens simulation!
 
So with a Queen, the events we see in Aliens could be the result of Aliens with short lifespans.
"

[TheDeed]

"Posted at AvP Outbreak on 30.09.2005 at 13:42:43

on 30.09.2005 at 12:43:31, deezelboy  wrote:

Use the initial, taken the Alien"s lifespan down to 2 days, which I think fairly reflects Alien.     Hadley"s goes *poof* at day 27 with 88 Aliens on the prowl.  Almost a perfect Aliens simulation!   So with a Queen, the events we see in Aliens could be the result of Aliens with short lifespans.

Here"s two questions following that remarkable simulation -  
 
2.5 Hosts?  If the Sulaco arrived at that point, then aren"t we missing a colonist? Perhaps they got on board the dropship and are responsible for... you know what.
 
If the Sulaco arrived just a day or two later everone would have been dead, the Aliens would be dead, with no Queen and just a bunch of eggs lying around.  Didn"t Cameron  time it just right? "

[deezelboy]

"Posted at AvP Outbreak on 30.09.2005 at 13:58:53

on 30.09.2005 at 13:42:43, TheDeed  wrote:

2.5 Hosts?  If the Sulaco arrived at that point, then aren"t we missing a colonist?

 
Well... You gott a remember it"s just a numbers game, giving averages.  So in the course of 24 hours, there are 2.5 hosts.  Maybe one died an hour prior to the USCM entering the hive, one was torched by the USCM, and I like to think that the 0.5 is Newt.  USCM see only the host they torched (and Newt), but there"s still 2.5 hosts per 24 hours.
 
Ok, so Newt"s not hosting, but we"re talking averages and statistics.  Giver her long enough and she will be...    
 
 Quote:

If the Sulaco arrived just a day or two later everone would have been dead, the Aliens would be dead, with no Queen and just a bunch of eggs lying around.  Didn"t Cameron  time it just right?

 
Yep!  And the start of Aliens would"ve been very much like the start of Alien.  Lots of eggs and dead things, but nothing alive.
 
I wonder which Marine would take the role of Kane?    
"

[TheDeed]

Posted at AvP Outbreak on 30.09.2005 at 14:10:06

I wonder which Marine would take the role of Kane?      
 
None are of such hard bastard calibre I"m afraid...

[maledoro]

"Posted at AvP Outbreak on 30.09.2005 at 14:32:40

Kane rulz! Hudson drulz!
 
"

[Hudson]

Posted at AvP Outbreak on 30.09.2005 at 23:08:06

Hmm...

[Cabal]

"Posted at AvP Outbreak on 30.09.2005 at 23:34:09

Stick to the original settings mostly, changing only 3 things
 
egg cache: 0
aliens population: 999
Hadley"s population: 1
 
You"ll find that one brave colonist fights off and destroys all nine hundred and ninety nine aliens.
 
EDIT: And it only takes 19 days. Thats roughly 52 aliens per day. "

[HellAlien]

Posted at AvP Outbreak on 30.09.2005 at 23:55:19

Took only 2 days to 1 colonist to kill 600 aliens ! Superman was in the house.    

[Bartleby]

"Posted at AvP Outbreak on 01.10.2005 at 04:21:29

Didn"t Ripley say that her entire crew was killed in less then 24 hours?  So that would put the warriors kills at 4 (Brett, Dallas, Parker, Lambert).  Not too sure about a drone though.   :-/  "

[fitzley]

"Posted at AvP Outbreak on 01.10.2005 at 08:32:03

on 30.09.2005 at 12:43:31, deezelboy  wrote:

Use the initial, taken the Alien"s lifespan down to 2 days, which I think fairly reflects Alien.

 
Just curious, why do you believe that the Alien"s lifespan is 2 days?
 
on 30.09.2005 at 12:43:31, deezelboy  wrote:

Hadley"s goes *poof* at day 27 with 88 Aliens on the prowl.  Almost a perfect Aliens simulation!   So with a Queen, the events we see in Aliens could be the result of Aliens with short lifespans.

 
I changed the lifespan of the Alien and Queen to 365 to test the effects of an indeterminable long lifespan.  
 
The results have the colony going under in 16 days with 145 xenos.  
 
Might be a little fast for the colony to go down--but it might work--what do you think?
 
One suggestion--inclusion of a variable to reflect colony defenses or the ability to kill off some of the aliens (not a lot--but I am sure they got a few).  
"

[deezelboy]

"Posted at AvP Outbreak on 01.10.2005 at 13:55:18

on 30.09.2005 at 23:34:09, Cabal  wrote:

You"ll find that one brave colonist fights off and destroys all nine hundred and ninety nine aliens.   EDIT: And it only takes 19 days. Thats roughly 52 aliens per day.

 
No eggs mean that, unless hosts can be transmuted,  no hosts can be produced, so no new Aliens.  Growth rate falls to zero.
 
Attrition hasn"t been factored in, so the colonist ain"t fighting them.  The lone colonist"s a Newt, waiting for the Aliens to die off.
 
The 19 days is an artefact of the model, Cabal.  I"m trying to model population statistics, the usual easy deezelboy"